How to wager on sports with value
Do odds matter when placing a bet? It goes without saying that they do. Making a wager without taking into account whether or not the lines being given are fair is one of the most common mistakes new gamblers do. They simply make their wager slips based solely on their gut feeling regarding the outcome. We will attempt to cover every aspect of value bets in this article, along with its significance to the betting world. We’ll provide a definition of a value bet and outline the top value wagers. We’ll examine what football value bets are in reality and how to spot them.
Understanding Value Betting
The major reason why gamblers lose money over the long run is probably that they don’t understand what value betting is. Maybe using an example will help to make this point apparent. Assume Chelsea and Arsenal are playing each other in the West London derby. The bookmakers believe that the Blues are the obvious favorite to win this matchup based on the two teams’ league table positions, historical matchups, home advantage, current form, potential injuries, and other factors. It’s hardly surprising that they give odds of roughly 1.5 for the home victory. Many gamblers will place their bets at that price in the hope that Chelsea would win as predicted. They could. But the outcome is essentially worthless.
What Are the Different Types of Value Betting Software?
We’ll concentrate on four of the most popular types to make things simpler.
Statistical Analysis Software
This software, as its name suggests, assists in comparing odds from virtually every online bookmaker. It refreshes odds as soon as a change is made, giving you an advantage over other bettors. You can use this function to replace the chances that have changed by selecting the relevant odds from a drop-down list. You can then put your bets at odds that offer higher value.
Software for tipping
There are better and worse tippers! You can distinguish between the greatest tipsters and the rest using tipping software, helping you save money. A tipster’s quality or whether they are just having a good run could be determined by examining the results of this software. This kind of software may consist of:
- Access to tens of thousands of tippers across numerous sports.
- Several betting options and bookmakers.
- Panel for administration with many functions.
- Free advice.
- Affiliate network.
There are some betting specialists that constantly outperform the market by using algorithms and tactics. For instance, one tipster might create an algorithm that examines the likelihood that a game would have four or more goals. You have a value bet if the offered odds are higher than the “actual” chance.
You can track and follow “experts” with the aid of tipster software, but be careful—tipsters are only human! If they rely more on “gut instinct” or “emotion” than on data, their recommendations will be biased.
Execution Software for Bets
Users of the Betfair Exchange can use interactive trading software. You can react to markets and place bets quite quickly thanks to it. Compared to using the site alone, it delivers faster updates and more information. Features consist of:
- A number of updates every second.
- Single-click functionality.
- Trading instruments like stop losses and offset bets.
- Dutching.
- Cash-out option.
Built-in Strategy and Execution Software that is Fully Automated
This choice for software is the most advanced one on the list and it relates to Mercurius. We analyze tens of thousands of data markets and previous match datapoints using artificial intelligence for each game!
AI is used in our Trade option to develop a completely automated quantitative strategy. You have the option to approach betting like an investor rather than relying on “guesswork.”
We take advantage of “sharp” odds based on a team’s and its players’ actual performance. As a result, each wager has a positive Expected Value, which indicates long-term financial success. You can try to mimic the Mercurius method, but you’ll need to enjoy probability, mathematics, and fast software that can compute a huge number of data points!
We concentrate on the most recent scientific research on Expected Goals (xG), passing performance (rather than just looking at passing percentage), and the overall skill and performance of a team when we analyze games. In order to establish whether a possible wager has a positive Expected Value, we must locate the most pertinent data.
What Are My Options When Choosing the Best Betting Software?
Finding out what “kind” of gambler you are and what your overarching objectives are is the first step. For instance, do you want to make a significant second income as an experienced bettor or a passive income similar to what is seen on the financial markets as a newcomer?
Consider the following as well:
- How much time do you have to devote to gambling?
- What’s your available cash?
- Analyze your level of expertise.
- Where do you call home? (Buying software is useless because gambling is prohibited in some countries.)
- What is your software spending limit?
- What characteristics does the program have? Do they match your requirements?
- Is the software being offered by a reputable business with a track record?
- The software can be scaled? Keep in mind that the betting industry is continuously changing, therefore you need software that can adapt.
In the end, you need software that profits from knowledgeable bookmakers as opposed to “soft” ones. Although the former is more difficult, it offers the possibility of long-term rewards with fewer constraints.
Value Betting Software FAQs
- Can you earn money betting on values?
Profitable and mathematically sound value betting. But there are risks involved. Even when everything is done correctly, bad luck still exists. Start with matched betting instead if you’re new to profitable gambling.
- Does value gambling involve any risk?
Value betting carries some risk. Downturns are inevitable, but since the wagers have a positive anticipated value, you will ultimately make money. only needs one bookmaker account, although three to four are advised when just getting started.
- How do you recognize a good value bet?
In general, a bet’s value is equal to its probability times its decimal odds divided by one. You have a value bet if the result of this calculation is larger than zero. For instance, there is a 50% probability that one side of a coin will rest on it during a typical coin toss.
